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20 March 2025Predicting Plenary Votes at the EU Parliament: More Than a Formality!
Since September 2019, MEPs have cast 19,723 votes in plenary sessions. We’ve analyzed them all—over 13 million individual votes—to uncover what really happens in the hemicycle. A common belief is that plenary sessions are just a formality, with final votes passing automatically and little debate taking place. Although it is true that 98% of all types of final votes are adopted, this perception overlooks the deeper dynamics of parliamentary decision-making — and you don’t want to miss out on that!
A closer look at all types of votes reveals a much more intricate and strategic landscape.
The European Parliament votes in detail
Although final votes pass with near certainty, non-final votes (i.e., votes on amendments, votes on motions for resolution, agenda, urgency votes, etc.) are adopted only 59% of the time. Hence, overall, only 62% of what reaches the plenary gets a "Yes". And these votes provide critical insights into the ideological positions of political groups and their shifting alliances.
For example, votes related to agenda-setting are passed in only 43% of cases, indicating that even determining what is discussed in plenary is a matter of political struggle. Budgetary (BUD) votes, one of the most politically charged areas, are among the most contested, with only 41% approval.
Inferring that Co-Decision (COD) votes pass with a 99% success rate is an oversimplification—it ignores everything that happens before that final moment. A legislative text is not just determined by a final vote; it’s a battleground of amendments, shaped not only in committees but also in plenary sittings, where last-minute changes can flip the script.
Debunking a myth
Since 2019, only 386 final votes on COD procedures have taken place, with 99% approval, whereas non-final COD votes — which occur almost ten times more often (3,498) — are approved only 55% of the time and are often the most contested.
So, even if it is commonly believed that key battles happen only within committees, some of them do happen in the plenary, where amendments can override committee negotiations and reshape legislation at the last moment. Take for example, the EU deforestation law, postponed by one year in November 2024 — it was adopted directly in plenary, bypassing committees through an emergency procedure. A clear example of how plenary amendments can dramatically shift legislative outcomes. Or look at the GDPR in 2019, where plenary-introduced amendments reinforced individual rights and corporate obligations, significantly shaping the final law.
Plenary sessions are more than a formality, they are a battlefield. Last-minute amendments, shifting alliances, and strategic moves can still reshape policies: Although the outcome may seem certain, its final content is not.
At DemoSquare, we go beyond analyzing votes—we predict them. By leveraging the full history of voting patterns in the European Parliament, we can forecast legislative outcomes before they happen, including all plenary amendments.
Because nothing is final until it’s voted, and everything leading up to the vote that truly provides the strategic edge you deserve, we ask you: Why wait for the outcome when you can predict it?